Stars vs. Avalanche second-round playoff series preview

We folks here at Last Word provide all the latest and greatest from the 2024 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs. Now is time for our preview and prediction of the Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars second round series. There have been some other heavyweight contender matchups already this post-season, and this one could give them all a run for their money. With star power, excellent regular season records, and Stanley Cup pedigree, this series has it all. To add to the plot, even the oddsmakers have this one tight, with the Stars as slight favourites (-120). This has all the makings of a classic, let’s take a look at why.

The Colorado and Dallas Playoff Series Prediction Based on the Season Series

Even the regular season series was intense, with the teams combining for 35 goals in the four games. The high-scoring nature helped combat the Stars’ strength in net, as the Avs took three of the four games. One aspect of the respective teams’ makeup that showed in the season series was the differentiation of depth up front. Dallas had eight different forwards score 21 goals or more. In contrast, the Avalanche only had three forwards get more than 20 goals. This depth is what helped propel Dallas to their lone season series victory against the Avs. That was an early April game, and the score was 7-4. So, it enabled Dallas to flex their muscle as teams prepared for the post-season.

On the other hand, one of the Avalanche players who almost had 20 goals (Jonathan Drouin with 19), continues to nurse an injury. This will further strain the Avs depth as he often plays on the top line. We mention Drouin as well because he was the first star in the Avs 5-4 overtime victory back in early January versus Dallas. You may recall Drouin was injured in the club’s final regular season game. Jared Bednar, Head Coach of the Colorado Avalanche, recently reminded everyone that the projected four-week timeline for his return is still on track. So, we will see if he makes an appearance in this projected, long, hard-fought series.  

Avalanche Key to Victory

Let’s take this opportunity to jump into Colorado’s keys to victory as we make our prediction for the series against Dallas. Both teams possess high-powered offences. The Avs finished first with 304 goals in the regular season, while Dallas was third with 298. Conversely, the Avs are more top-heavy, which is led by the second-best scorer from the NHL’s regular season, Nathan MacKinnon, who had 140 points. Thus, the Avs top snipers like MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Valeri Nichuskin, and Cale Makar will need to find a way to beat the Stars stud goaltender, Jake Oettinger. That’s why they opened it up in the regular season, in order to play a run-and-gun game.

But, if that’s not working, they may have to get dirty to score goals. Lots of traffic, and throwing pucks on net. It’s tough to say if this series will be high-scoring since the tendency is for the playoffs to be tighter defensively and lower-scoring. That’s something the Avs definitely have going for them following round one, where they faced Connor Hellebuyck. They threw out the fact he won the William Jennings Trophy and is a Vezina Trophy finalist. The Avs scored at least five goals in each of the five games, to show that they are a contender, and can dictate the pace of play with a run-and-gun style. Look for them to do more of the same in this matchup against the Stars and their potentially difference-making goaltender.

Stars Key to Victory

We hinted at them already, but now the Dallas Stars keys to victory. The Stars need to use their depth, offensively and defensively, to overcome the Avalanche. The scoring depth carried them offensively. Even though their lines changed throughout the season, one combination stands out to illustrate the Stars depth. Their third line contained Matt Duchene and Tyler Seguin at times. These are both plus, point-per-game players at one time, and still very productive. Moreover, on defence, their depth is strong too. From a top-tier NHLer like Miro Heiskanen to developing players, like a Thomas Harley, and add on a veteran, trade deadline acquisition, Chris Tanev, they are very deep as a unit. This gives them a big advantage in the series, as they feature Oettinger in net. As a comparison, from the regular season, the Stars were eighth-best in goals allowed (234), while the Avs were 16th (254).  

Our Final Prediction Between Colorado and Dallas

This has all the makings of a seven-game classic, so that’ll be our first call. The Stars are deep, but look for MacKinnon and the rest of the skilled Avalanche to find a way. Remember this is a team that won the Stanley Cup only a season before last. Therefore, they know how to hit that extra gear needed for the playoffs. Look for the Stars to be worthy opponents, but when it comes down to a single game, assuming a seven-game series, give the edge to the team that has been there, done that. Avs in 7.

Prediction: Colorado takes the series 4-3.